Generational Surnames and Autosomal DNA Matching

 

Generational Surnames and Autosomal DNA Matching

By Roberta Estes

My interest in this topic is due to the number of adoptees I work with. DNA testing for genetic genealogy often represents the best, if not the only hope to adoptees of finding their genetic families.

I'm working with a woman who has two possible surnames to work with. Both are possibilities and the answer could be that neither of these surname is the right one. However, I've managed to put together some genealogy on both lines and I wanted to know how often people are finding matches in the genealogy data bases at Family Tree DNA and at 23andMe for their surnames represented by their parents, their grandparents, and their great-grandparents. For this exercise, I don't care how many matches to each surname they have, only IF they have any match to that surname.

For example, if your parents surnames are Smith and Jones, for example, and you have any matches that include the surnames Smith or Jones in their surnames listed as their ancestors, the answer is yes. If both Smith and Jones have matches, then you have 2 for 2 in the first generation. 

 

The second generation, grandparents, includes 4 surnames, the 2 represented by your parents plus two more, your mother's mother's surname (Anderson) and your father's mother's surname (Ferverda), for a total of 4. If Smith and Jones are already represented, then we need to determine if Anderson and Ferverda have matches. Let's say neither do, so for this generation, you have 2 of 4 possible. 

 

For the great-grandparents generation, we add 4 more ancestors, for a total of 8. Let's say that those surnames are Moore, Brown, Quincy and Scott and let's say that only Scott shows up in the list of surnames of your matches. So for this generation you have 3 of 8, your two parents, plus Scott.

The real question here is what is the likelihood that someone who is adopted will find their biological surnames in the surnames listed by their matches.

An ad hoc survey on both the ISOGG and the DNA-Genealogy lists in January 2012 received results for a total of 57 people who had been tested. A couple of people provided only partial information for a variety of reasons, so the totals in each group are slightly different.

Of the group who replied, for the first generation, their parents, the following was found:

• 20 people had no matches to their parents surnames
• 21 people had one match to their parents surnames
• 14 people had matches to both of their parents surnames

What this means to adoptees is there is a 38% likelihood that none or one of your parents surnames are represented in your matches. There is a 25% likelihood that both of your parents surnames are listed. Overall, there is a 64% likelihood that you will find at least one of your parents surnames listed in your matches. Of course, the question remains, which surnames are which.

Moving to the second, grandparents, generation we find the following.

• 16 people had zero matches to any of their 4 grandparents surnames
• 14 people had 1 match to their 4 grandparents surnames
• 11 people had 2 matches to their 4 grandparents surnames
• 7 people had 3 matches to their 4 grandparents surnames
• 6 people had matches to all 4 of their grandparents surnames

This means that there is a 30% chance that none of your parents or grandparents surnames are found among your matches. However, there is also a 70% chance that at least one of your grandparents surnames will be found among your matches. There is only a small chance, 7%, that all 4 of your grandparents surnames will be found among your matches.

Moving to the third generation, great-grandparents, we find the following:

• 11 people had zero matches to any of their 8 great-grandparents surnames
• 9 people had 1 match to their 8 great-grandparents surnames
• 6 people had 2 matches to their 8 great-grandparents surnames
• 12 people had 3 matches to their 8 great-grandparents surnames
• 7 people had 4 matches to their 8 great-grandparents surnames
• 4 people had 5 matches to their 8 great-grandparents surnames
• 2 people had 6 matches to their 8 great-grandparents surnames
• 4 people had 7 matches to their 8 great-grandparents surnames
• 1 person had matches to all 8 of their great-grandparents surnames
  
  

There is a 20% likelihood that none of your parents, grandparents or great-grandparents surnames will be found among your matches. However, there is also an 80% likelihood that at least one of those 8 surnames will be found among your matches. 

 

The results of the 3 generation, 8 surname survey, when plotted, take the shape of the traditional bell shaped curve, with a lump that would likely smooth out with more samples. Twenty one percent of the people will find 3 of their 8 grandparents surnames among their matches.

Most people told me where they tested, or I could easily discern the information due to the test name. Many of them also included their total number of matches. The total of matches at 23andMe was, as a rule, was between 4 and 5 times the number of matches at Family Tree DNA. However, the commentary was pretty uniformly that people were disappointed with the contacts, or lack thereof, at 23andMe, in general, and when contact was made, that many had either no interest in or little information on their genealogy, rendering the contact useless or nearly so. One person wondered why someone would test at Family Tree DNA if they weren't interested in genealogy, so the response problem is not unique to 23andMe clients.

Of the people who responded to the survey, 13 of them had tested at both 23andMe and Family Tree DNA. Those results are included separately. Of these at the 8 surname level, there were a total of 21 matches at Family Tree DNA and 34 matches at 23andMe, so testers are obtaining more surname matches at 23andMe, but only about one third more, not in proportion to the 400% to 500% more matches than at Family Tree DNA. This is likely a direct reflection of the number of people at 23andMe that are interested in the health information and not in the genealogical aspect. However, one would think that if they went to the trouble to enter their surnames, they would have some interest in family history.

Interesting aspects were that maybe half of the people had some complicating factor, such as a highly endogamous population or a patronymic population, both of which clearly affect the potential of finding matching surnames. Equally as interesting was the one man who had no matches for any of his 8 grandparents surnames but had relatively "vanilla" colonial American surnames. 

 

As both data bases increase in size, I would expect the numbers and percentages of matches to rise as well. The message here is that today, in January of 2012, for adoptees, there is about a 38% chance that one of your parents surnames is found among your matches, a 64% chance that one or both of your parents surnames will be found, a 70% chance that one or more of your grandparents surnames will be found and 80% chance that one or more of your great-grandparents surnames will be found.

This blog is © History Chasers
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Revealing American Indian and Minority Heritage by DNA Testing and Traditional Genealogy

 It is an honor to announce the publication at JOGG by Roberta Estes, Administrator of the Lost Colony of Roanoke and the Cumberland Gap DNA Projects along with co-administrator of the Melungeon DNA Project, Hatteras Island, Carolina Native Heritage and several other DNA projects. This is a peer reviewed article which has passed scrutiny by a panel of highly respected DNA experts. This paper is a must read by genealogists who are using any of the various types of DNA testing available.  -  History Chasers

Roberta Estes's new academic paper has been published as of Sunday. It's free in the Journal of Genetic Genealogy sponsored by ISOGG.

The paper, titled "Revealing American Indian and Minority Heritage using Y-line, Mitochondrial, Autosomal and X Chromosomal Testing Data Combined with Pedigree Analysis" is at the link below:

http://www.jogg.info/62/files/Estes.pdf 

The index of the entire journal is available at this link:

http://www.jogg.info/62/index.html

It is a long process to publish a paper at JOGG. Roberta was invited to write this article in March of 2009 and it was submitted a year ago with final revisions in July.

It will also be on her website shortly as well at www.dnaexplain.com under the Publications tab. Lots of free goodies there too.

Abstract:

As a project administrator of several historically based genetic genealogy projects, such as the Lost Colony, Cumberland Gap, Melungeon, Carolina Native Heritage and Hatteras Island projects which involve thousands of participants, I routinely receive questions from individuals who have an oral history of Native American heritage and would like to use genetic genealogical tools to prove, or disprove, their oral history.  This paper documents the various discovery steps and processes using different types of DNA testing for a typical individual participant and appropriate family members whocarry an oral Native history combined with genealogical evidence that has been forthcoming during the elapsed years since genetic testing for genealogy first because available.  Each test along with associated benefits and detriments are discussed in relation to the analysis of minority ancestry.  The conclusion combines the information from all the various tests, pedigree analysis and genealogical evidence, discussing which tests are beneficial and most accurate, and which ones are not useful, and why.

    

This blog is © History Chasers
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A Review of Family Tree DNA’s Family Finder – Part I

July 19th, 2010

Since late 2007, several “direct-to-consumer” or “DTC” genetic testing products have entered the marketplace, many of which offered some degree of autosomal ancestry analysis (including 23andMe, deCODEme, and Pathway Genomics, among others).

In early 2010, genetic ancestry testing company Family Tree DNA announced that it would begin offering a new genetic genealogy product (see “Announcing Family Finder – An Autosomal Test From Family Tree DNA”). The new product, called “Family Finder,” is one of only a very few autosomal genetic genealogy tests available to consumers.

Continued here:

http://www.thegeneticgenealogist.com/2010/07/19/a-review-of-family-tree-dnas-family-finder-part-i/




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Click here to view all recent Lost Colony Research Group Blog posts

Follow Newsweek Reporter as She Tries Out the Autosomal DNA Tests

You can even keep up with Mary Carmichael on Twitter if you want to.

DNA Dilemma: The FAQs

Some guidelines and details for my week-long project.

I’m trying to choose whether or not I want to take a direct-to-consumer genetic scan of hundreds of thousands of variants in my genome. Before we get started with the big questions, here are some basic queries that many consumers may have, as well as some information about myself and this project.

So how will this work, anyway?

I'm currently in possession of a direct-to-consumer genetic test—I just haven't decided if I'll use it. For three days this week, I'll pose a question a day to a variety of sources about the value of these tests. I'll post their answers on this site, along with my reaction. I'll also be soliciting opinions from commenters and people following me on Twitter. On Friday, Aug. 6, I'll evaluate everything I've learned and reveal whether I've decided to take the test.

Which DTC genetic testing kit did you buy?

Currently, there are two large, reputable companies offering scans of hundreds of thousands of genetic markers directly to consumers, the same ones that introduced the tests to the public, launching within a day of each other in 2007: 23andMe and deCODE. I don’t plan to reveal here which company’s kit I bought, because I don’t want to become a de facto ad for either company if I take the test. However, it’s worth noting that there are some differences between the firms. 23andMe charges a lot less, for instance—$499 for a health and ancestry scan, compared to the $2,000 price of the deCODEme complete scan—and tests for about half as many genetic variants, 550,000 compared to deCODE’s 1 million. Aside from the occasional embarrassing slip-up, 23andMe does a fine job of quality control in identifying genes. So does deCODE, which isn’t a testing company so much as a lab that happens to sell tests while producing a near-unrivalled body of genetics research. Both companies have also put a lot of effort into conveying their findings in innovative (if not always fully transparent) ways. They try to interpret their data with a lengthy report and continuous updates on the Web; deCODE’s service even links to the original research that underlies the test.

Continued here:

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/02/dna-dilemma-the-faqs.html

This blog is © History Chasers
Click here to view all recent Lost Colony Research Group Blog posts

23andMe Half Price Sale

23andMe is being offered at half price for the rest of this month.

https://www.23andme.com/partner/foa/

This blog is © History Chasers

Click here to view all recent Searching for the Lost Colony DNA Blog posts

Genealogy by DNA: Can it Deliver?

by Janet Crain

This article is not intended to criticize the geneticists involved in this new science. Henry Greely, a professor of law who specializes in genetics and ethics at Stanford University in California says;"I know these scientists, and they are honorable people, and the reports they give don't overpromise". Some firms require clients to sign psychological releases absolving companies from responsibility if results don't jibe with client expectations.

However; Bruce Jackson, a molecular geneticist at Boston University, who has launched the African-American DNA Roots Project, along with biologist Bert Ely of the University of South Carolina, cautions that "like anything on the Internet, this is all a case of 'caveat emptor' - let the buyer beware. But the science is valid. There's no doubt about the science." He sees DNA as "the hottest new tool" in genealogy, which is why Web sites on the subject run second only in hits to pornography pages. With those kind of statistics, it is easy to see that this "hot new tool' is going to be marketed and hyped to the hilt.

Unfortunately, sometimes the hype exceeds the actual benefit that can reasonably be expected to accrue. Minorities, in particular, are targeted. Because most black African Americans do not know what part of Africa their ancestors came from, or what tribe, they are immensely interested to find out anything that will give them a connection to their mother country. So is learning that you have a genetic marker that is shared by a widespread group of people in Africa worth $349.? That would, of course, depend on your curiosity and finances. Is the hype promising a greater benefit than can be delivered?

Some bio-ethicists say the sales pitch raises unreasonable expectations. "DNA is going to be very important and it’s on the cutting edge,” said professional genealogist Tony Burroughs, who teaches at Chicago State University. “But it’s not a panacea. You’re not going to discover your entire family tree from a little spit on a cotton swab.”Burroughs, author of “Black Roots: A Beginners Guide to Tracing the African American Family Tree” argues that DNA can’t replace old-fashioned reporting work.But rather, he feels genealogical breakthroughs will come from uncovering previously forgotten written records. He’s after names, addresses and other hard facts.

Another group that is often targeted by testing companies is Native American Indians. There are many people in the Americas who descend from the Native American Indigenous peoples of these continents. Some know it, some suspect it, some have no idea. The suppression of knowledge about Native American bloodlines was a direct effect of government policies since Europeans first set foot on North and South American. It is now believed that, the diseases, unwittingly carried by the Europeans, wiped out about 75-95% of the original population. The remaining population was systematically cheated and dispossessed, until only remnant bands remained and these were herded onto reservations or relocated to distant lands. The so called Trail of Tears separated many families. Other similar sad events had the same consequences. Many Native Americans assimilated and intermarried with whites. Traders and early day hunters were eager to take Indian wives to gain access to rich hunting grounds. The descendants of these dispossessed people often had no way to unravel their true genetic heritage. In the late 19th century, it wasn't a popular thing for parents to pass on to children. Some had a vague idea or heard rumors, but there was nothing substantial to go on.

Now there is. For as little as $99.00, a male in a surname group can learn if his Y chromosome paternal line is Native American. Similarly, a woman or a man could take the mtDNA test (group priced at $129. or as low as $89. for existing Family Tree DNA customers), and learn if their straight-line maternal line is Native American. Several different testing companies offer reductions in price to participants in surname groups of at least six. The problem with both Y and mtDNA testing is that due to racial mixing, a person's paternal line; father's father's father's, etc. may lead back to a European man and the maternal line; mother's mother's mother's may lead back to a European woman. This can hold true in some cases for a person who looks entirely Native American. One Native American man from Canada discovered that not only is he descended from an Englishman on the Y chromosome, but he is eligible for some hereditary position in England. Other than finding out you are really an English Earl with a castle in England (and a substantial inheritance), this type of result would disappoint many.

One of the better known media hyped DNA tests was that of the Melungeons, a dark skinned group of unknown origin living in Tennessee in the early 1800's. These DNA tests were started about 2000, as a volunteer effort; there was no cost to the participants except unfulfilled expectations, frustration and time lost. After many promises of the results being announced, there was finally an announcement, of sorts, on June 23, 2002. Were the expectations met? Without pointing a finger of blame at any one person, I would have to say; "No". For several reasons. The announcement only included preliminary results and comments. No actual DNA raw data was ever presented to participants or anyone else. No known peer review was ever conducted. No questions were answered conclusively. It was called a "Population" test, but only had around 100 participants. Its purported purpose was to capture a view of the Y chromosome and mtDNA haplogroups carried by these few self identified Melungeon descendants that came down to them from their Melungeon foreparents. Even though several generations had passed and their ancestry now had the input of many other ancestors, this was supposed to offer some information. Yet to this day, the "results" of this test are quoted as if they are valid.

Regrettably this lucrative new field has attracted some so called "experts" whose only talents consist of cutting and pasting together impressive looking reports. In my opinion, their professional background should be investigated thoroughly before investing in their interpretation of your DNA data. Many good people are involved in the new science of Genealogy by DNA. Quite a few are donating their time and expertise. It would certainly be to the DNA test subject's advantage to join a list of persons researching this area and learn all you can before spending your hard earned money on consultations with "Internet" experts. Once you are better informed you can make better decisions as to how the allocate the funds, if any, you decide to budget for this expenditure.

The latest player among DNA tests is the autosomal test. This type of test, tests the DNA inherited from both parents and shuffled during transmission. It was thought that certain genes would be informative to determine ethnic percentages. These tests were highly touted for this ability, but soon found lacking. What the DNAPrint test can do is predict majority ethnicity. And that is very important for forensic purposes. When the FBI profiled a serial killer in Louisiana as a white loner type, the DNAPrint test revealed him to be predominantly black. This new information led to his arrest and possibly saved lives of future victims.

However the hype surrounding this test, claiming to be able to detect as little as 3% of an ethnicity has led many people to believe, erroneously, that they have an ancestor of a previously unsuspected ethnicity when, in actuality, they do not. Experts say the test is only accurate to + or - 15%.

Recently a utility named OmniPop became the cause celebre among some DIY geneticists. But the creator, Brian Burritt, has stated he never intended this utility to be used for this purpose. And it would be very misleading if used in this manner. In addition, Family Tree DNA has issued a statement cautioning against reliance on this utility. An excellent service now available is http://www.dnaexplain.com/.

So, in conclusion the answer to "Can Genealogy by DNA Deliver?" is a qualified "Yes". Just be sure you have a clearly defined objective; more than one objective is fine. Do your homework and learn the limitations of Genealogy research utilizing DNA testing. And be sure you are using the right test to answer your questions. Don't be embarrassed to ask questions of those more knowledgeable than yourself. Most of us knew little to nothing about this new Genealogy tool when we first became interested. The technology is very new. It is changing at a dizzying speed. It is cutting edge. It can be tedious waiting for results. It can be disappointing when the results are not to your expectations. But the rewards are many and very exiting for those who understand these obstacles. And you will surely have something to talk about at your next Family Reunion.

More here:

http://www.genpage.com/genealogyDNA.html